Current Science

Prashant Goswami ¹, Shiv Narayan Nishad ¹

Affiliations
1 CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute (Formerly CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation), Wind Tunnel Road, Bangalore 560 037, IN

Abstract

Agricultural sustainability is an important parameter for policy design. The primary variables for agricultural sustainability, like available arable land and water, depend on competing demands from other sectors as well as natural factors like climate change. The other critical factor that determines sustainability is demand, which changes with population and dietary habits. The supply also depends on external sources (import); thus a comprehensive and quantitative assessment of sustainability is a major scientific challenge. Here we present an assessment of agricultural sustainability for India. Import requirement, potential surplus and sustainability index are used to estimate India's food sustainability.

Keywords

Agricultural Sustainability, Carrying Capacity, Degree of Dependency, Import Requirement, Trade Balance.

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Prashant Goswami ¹, Shiv Narayan Nishad ¹

Affiliations
1 CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute, Wind Tunnel Road, Bengaluru 560 037, IN

Abstract

Increase in demand, decline in primary resources and impact of climate change make agricultural sustainability a complex function of many variables. A major gap is a consistent and quantitative formulation for assessment and projection of sustainability. We consider agricultural self-sustainability, defined as the condition of minimum food requirement from domestic production, and present a dynamical model of evolution of its constrained dynamics. The model is then applied to estimate and project agricultural self-sustainability, carrying capacity and import requirement with India as a case study in different socio-climatic scenarios. Unconstrained productivity is considered to determine technology demand for different scenarios.

Keywords

Agricultural Self-Sustainability, Carrying Capacity, Degree of Dependency, Dynamical Sustainability Model, Technology Demand.

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